Europol’s latest Serious and Organized Crime Threat Assessment (SOCTA) report, published this week, offers an analysis of serious and organized crime across Europe, with a specific focus on digital content piracy. While the report touches on various crime threats, its section on piracy is notably brief, only occupying a small portion of its 100 pages. Despite this, Europol’s predictions about online piracy, particularly regarding a projected “drop in demand” for pirated services, have caught attention.
The Piracy Landscape
The report highlights that pirated digital content is increasingly accessed via mobile and web-based apps, fueled by the surge in online streaming and “over-the-top” services. Europol also notes the rising overlap between piracy and other forms of cybercrime. A growing trend is the theft of login credentials from legitimate streaming subscribers, which are then repackaged and sold on illicit platforms. Europol specifically points to phishing scams and data breaches as the primary methods for obtaining these credentials.
A Drop in Demand?
One of the most notable aspects of the report is Europol’s prediction that demand for pirate services will decline in the future. This forecast has drawn attention for several reasons, particularly given the backdrop of the current cost-of-living crisis and the increasing fragmentation of legal streaming services. The report suggests that while cost concerns and fragmentation have driven some consumers to piracy, the improved accessibility of legal platforms, coupled with enforcement efforts in some EU member states, will result in fewer users of illicit services.
However, this prediction of a “drop in demand” is based on Europol’s analysis of current trends and expected future developments. The agency has emphasized that the forecast is not rooted in older data, despite the report citing older information.
The Challenge of Context and Data
For rightsholders, Europol’s forecast may be encouraging. Yet, many have noted that the lack of detailed data and explanation in the report leaves some questions unanswered. The citations used to support the piracy decline prediction point to older reports, including data collected as far back as 2020. This raises concerns about the accuracy of the projection, especially since significant developments in the streaming landscape—such as the launch of platforms like Disney+ and HBO Max—occurred after this data was gathered.
To add to the confusion, a 2023 EUIPO copyright infringement report showed that online piracy had begun to rise again, contradicting Europol’s projected decline. While Europol insists that its conclusion is based on a current analysis of piracy trends, the reliance on older data sources seems to present a contradiction.
Europol’s Clarification
Following initial publication, Europol clarified the matter. Claire Georges, Europol’s head of media relations, explained that the prediction of a decline in piracy was based on the agency’s most recent analysis of the current situation and expected future trends. The older data referenced in the report served as context but was not the sole basis for the projection. Nonetheless, the citation of outdated reports alongside this prediction led to confusion, as the data seems to suggest a different trajectory than Europol’s current outlook.
In conclusion, while Europol’s latest SOCTA report offers an optimistic view of piracy’s future, it leaves room for questions. The prediction of a decline in piracy may be based on current trends, but the reliance on older data and the fragmented nature of the legal streaming market mean that the outlook remains uncertain.
